As West Africa stands at the crossroads of a global health transformation, a quiet revolution is unfolding—powered not by vaccines or hospital beds, but by data, algorithms, and shifting demographics.
At a time when development aid is dwindling, fertility rates are declining, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rising, experts say the future of public health in Ghana and the wider sub-region may depend less on what is funded from abroad and more on how local systems adapt, innovate, and invest from within.
Speaking to Bullet News on the sidelines of a high-level forum on the future of health in West Africa, Professor Neil Ferguson, renowned mathematical biologist and head of Imperial College London’s School of Public Health, stressed the need for more agile, cross-cutting approaches to public health in Africa.
“We’re seeing massive changes in the global health landscape,” he said. “Emerging infectious diseases like Mpox still pose a pandemic threat, but at the same time, non-communicable diseases like diabetes and hypertension are rising fast—especially in places like Sub-Saharan Africa where the disease profile is rapidly shifting.”
Beyond Infections: A Looming NCD Crisis
For decades, Africa’s public health burden has been dominated by infectious diseases—malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. But thanks to advances in vaccines and public health delivery, mortality from these diseases, especially among children, has declined dramatically. In its place, NCDs like heart disease, stroke, and cancers are rising, often silently.
Professor Ferguson noted that Africa still has a demographic window—its population remains relatively young—but the time to act is now.
“Prevention is key,” he explained. “Better nutrition, anti-smoking campaigns, and low-cost health checks can go a long way. But there also needs to be investment in diagnosis and treatment—especially for cardiovascular diseases and cancers.”
Dr. Frances Baaba da-Costa Vroom, a senior lecturer at the University of Ghana’s School of Public Health, echoed that concern, but warned that much of the progress made so far—particularly in immunisation and maternal health—could be reversed due to geopolitical instability and shrinking donor support.
“Donor funding has sustained key services like vaccination and family planning,” she said. “But with major players like the US cutting back, we must begin to mobilise our own resources. That includes revisiting taxation and ensuring transparency in how funds are allocated to health.”
Data Is the New Medicine
One of the clearest takeaways from the forum was the transformative role of data. From disease surveillance to precision interventions, panellists agreed that Africa can no longer afford to underutilise its health data.
Dr. da-Costa Vroom pointed to telemedicine and AI as low-hanging fruits. “We’ve done studies that show telemedicine works—especially in rural areas,” she said. “But beyond that, we’re sitting on vast amounts of data from the National Health Insurance Scheme and other agencies. It’s time we trained analysts and scientists to actually make that data talk.”
Professor Ferguson believes that AI-driven health modelling could revolutionise how Africa plans for future health threats. He leads the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, a global $20 million project backed by the Wellcome Trust and Gates Foundation, which uses epidemiological models to predict vaccine outcomes and save lives.
“We’re now applying AI not just in infectious disease modelling, but even in cancer research,” he revealed. “Imperial has partnered with Ghana to build research and manufacturing capacity, and we’re supporting Ghanaian students through AI fellowships sponsored by the Schmidt Foundation.”
The Fertility Debate: A Double-Edged Sword
The panel also tackled one of the most overlooked shifts in African health—fertility. Globally, sperm counts have dropped significantly in recent decades, and while Professor Ferguson cautioned that he’s not an expert in male fertility, he acknowledged the importance of understanding the causes—ranging from hormone-disrupting chemicals to poor health.
At the same time, Africa is projected to be home to 2.4 billion people by 2050, with Nigeria overtaking China as the most populous country. This duality—declining fertility rates on one hand, rapid population growth on the other—poses both opportunities and immense pressure on already strained health systems.
“The 21st century will be the African century,” Ferguson said. “But that requires planning now—especially for the demographic transition that’s already happening in other parts of the world.”
Vaccine Hesitancy: The Next Epidemic?
Even as researchers continue to develop innovative vaccines—including for cancers and chronic illnesses—public trust remains a hurdle. Vaccine hesitancy, driven by misinformation and social media, is a growing concern worldwide, including in Ghana.
“Just telling people they’re wrong doesn’t work,” Ferguson said. “Healthcare providers—those on the ground—are much more trusted than experts like me flying in from London. Dialogue, not confrontation, is the path forward.”
A Crossroads for Policy and People
The forum—organised by Imperial Global Ghana—delivered a central message that public health in West Africa is no longer just about diseases; it is about data, demographics, and doing more with less. While international partnerships remain vital, the sustainability of health gains increasingly lies in the hands of local institutions, governments, and innovators.
As Dr. da-Costa Vroom aptly put it, “Innovation is not just about shiny tools. It’s about using what we already have—our data, our people, our platforms—and applying them smartly. That’s how we build resilience.”
In an era defined by polycrises—climate shocks, pandemics, political instability—the race is on to future-proof public health in Ghana and beyond. The tools are there. The question is: will we use them?
By Emmanuel Samani | Accra, Ghana
